Emissions as usual?
By Ciarán Mac Aodha Bhuí
If you've been following the media as of late, the debate over emissions targets has seemed unavoidable. Under the 2021 Climate Action Act, the Irish government is legally bound to a 51% cut in emissions by the end of the decade, with the hope of reaching net-zero emissions by 2050. Following intense internal debate and lobbying from groups like the IFA, the government has started to step back from these goals - reducing a 30% target for the agricultural sector down to 25%. Following the media circus surrounding these targets, there is a need for us to cut through the noise and accurately assess the impacts of these targets, how the opposition has reacted, and where we can go from here.
As the government tried to back away from their targets, we saw a groundswell of disinformation and denial from lobbyists and the press. The extent to which we pollute was downplayed, with the false argument that Ireland is only "a small drop in the ocean" compared to more industrialised nations often being raised. The government's plans were framed as being overly ambitious and hard on farmers - with a push to cut targets to their bare minimum and ignore the risk of climate catastrophe. These arguments don't stand up to any scrutiny, especially when you start looking at the figures underlining the targets.
The idea that Ireland only serves as a "small drop in the ocean" is false, with the Environmental Protection Agency noting that Ireland has the second-highest rate of per capita greenhouse gas emissions in Europe. Our reliance on agriculture means that we disproportionately emit methane gas, with 37.5% of our greenhouse gas emissions stemming from the agricultural sector. There are no signs of this reliance changing, with a 15% increase in agricultural emissions since 1990 being observed. Attempts to downplay Ireland's contribution towards climate change often obfuscate the impact our agricultural industry have - protecting the interests of those on the top.
Equally false is the perception that the government is being overly ambitious - with November's Climate Action plan failing to do much beyond kicking the can down the road. As outlined by Des Hennelly for this magazine, the 51% goal "is even less ambitious than the EU’s own underwhelming European Green Deal, which targets cuts of 55% by 2030 compared to 1990 levels". But even then, the numbers for this 51% cut don't add up - with top-end reductions in all industries only bringing about a 48% cut.
The government's decision to cut the initial 30% target for the agricultural sector reflects a larger unwillingness to deal with the climate crisis. In the words of a Fine Gael TD recently quoted in the Sunday Business Post, "there isn't a person bar the zealots in the Greens who believes that any of the sectors will reach any of their targets" - a sentiment backed up by the recent decision to lower targets in order to keep Moneypoint power station open. The capitalist class is not willing to make any attempt to prevent ecological collapse, instead providing us with occasional sound bites and new excuses to further delay action.
However, this unwillingness to be serious about climate change isn't solely confined to the government. One of the most notable parts of this recent media circus was Sinn Féin's inability to put forward any position on the emissions targets, instead claiming that they didn't have enough information to say anything. When questioned in the press, Darren O’Rourke (the party’s spokesperson for the environment) stalled for time - claiming that Sinn Féin were waiting on a report from McKinsey to be published and could not comment until they had received it. When asked what target should be set for the agricultural sector, Sinn Féin once again dodged the question - claiming they won’t “pluck a figure from the air”. Each time the party were given an opportunity to lay out an alternative approach, they instead muddied the water and stalled for time.
As noted by An Taisce, this strategy from Sinn Féin is clearly in bad faith - with the party blatantly trying to avoid the ire of the ruling class and their lobbyists by saying nothing. Tie this in with the party’s failure to criticise the government around the renewal of the Special Criminal Court and their racist refugee policies, and it’s clear that the party are moving rightwards - triangulating policies to appease the establishment instead of taking them on.
Sinn Féin’s success in the 2020 election stemmed from an overwhelming urge for a break from the FG/FF establishment and for the formation of a left government willing to fight for an Irish NHS, climate justice, and an end to the housing crisis. For these struggles to be won, any left government would have to be willing to take on the 1% - placing the interests of the people over big lobbyists. The party’s recent indecisiveness around the emissions targets reflects a wider lurch rightwards - with Sinn Féin moving closer to the political establishment. If we are to build a mass movement for a Just Transition, we need to be willing to call out and counter these attempts from the government and Sinn Féin to procrastinate and keep emissions running as usual.