Five takeaways from the by-elections

by Paul Murphy

1. FF/FG are deeply unpopular - a left government is possible

The combined vote of Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael in Dublin Central is the lowest ever recorded. Fianna Fáil has performed disastrously in both elections. Although Fine Gael’s Seán Kyne secured the seat in Galway West, this relates more to his personal vote, rather than support for the government.

In Dublin Central, the combined left vote exceeded 60%, matching the vote for Catherine Connolly in the constituency and marginally up on the general election 2024. In Galway West, it was much lower, at just over 30%. This is down slightly on the general election, in the context of candidates with a much lower profile and the growth of Independent Ireland.

The ‘Connolly coalition’ parties all called for people to ‘vote left, transfer left’ in these by-elections. Even without a transfer pact and collective campaign to back it up, there was a high rate of transfer within the broad left. This shows there was the potential for a greater impact of a pact based on principles, and, particularly, a commitment to rule out coalition with Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael. If such a clear alternative was on offer, it would have the positive effect of polarising the next general election between FF/FG and the left. It would also expose the willingness of Independent Ireland, Aontú, and independents that fish in the same pool to prop up FF/FG. 

2. The populist and far-right are on the move

Noel Thomas of Independent Ireland topped the poll on the first count in Galway West. The former Fianna Fáil Councillor left the party in the wake of an arson attack on an IPAS centre which he refused to condemn and said that the “inn is full”. Malachy Steenson, a far-right Councillor, received almost 10% in Dublin Central and can challenge for a seat at the next general election. 

An increasing number of those who are deeply alienated from the political establishment are now looking rightwards. How to respond is a crucial question for all who see themselves on the left. Sinn Féin’s results prove that shifting rightward is no solution. 

The alternative is to combine a principled socialist approach with a strategy of serious organising in working class communities. This means holding firm on questions of migration, LGBTQ rights and women’s rights while organising on housing and the cost of living. 

By organising Council tenants to resist the rent hikes, we help to increase the confidence of working class people and create a space for discussion about who the real enemy is and the divide-and-rule approach of the establishment.

3. Sinn Féin faces a choice

Although sections of the media are exaggerating the ‘disaster for Mary Lou’ angle, there is a real problem now posed for Sinn Féin. They have responded to the emergence of anti-immigrant and ‘anti-woke’ sentiment and right populism by shifting to the right. This was epitomised by a leaflet dropped in Dublin Central with the headline “Sinn Féin will manage migration.” But their rightward shift is not confined solely to migration. They abstained on a Social Democrats Bill to expand abortion rights two weeks before the by-election, despite having voted in favour of a more far-reaching pro-choice Bill from People Before Profit in the last Dáil term. 

This strategy is simply not working. Despite a strong campaign by Sinn Féin activists and good media performances by their candidate, Cllr. Janice Boylan, they didn’t even top the poll on first preferences. In Galway West, where Pearse Doherty and Matt Carthy (the putative alternative leadership to Mary Lou McDonald) were highly visible, they did even worse, getting less than 7%, coming behind Labour and the Social Democrats. 

Left-minded voters who make up a majority in constituencies like Dublin Central are not fooled. They fear that Sinn Féin are willing to abandon marginalised groups for temporary, imagined electoral benefit, and are put off. The fact that almost 50% of PBP transfers in Dublin Central went to the Social Democrats compared to 23% to Sinn Féin illustrates this. 

Sinn Féin needs to choose. Are they a left party willing to head up a left government, in which case they should rule out coalition with Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, stop scapegoating asylum seekers and take consistently left-wing positions? Or will they continue to talk out of both left and right sides of their mouth, and end up looking like a party without conviction in what it stands for? 

4. Social Democrats have momentum

After adding Daniel Ennis in Dublin Central, the Social Democrats now have 12 TDs. Their polling is trending upwards towards 10%. They clearly have electoral momentum and can squeeze Sinn Féin in certain areas. A crucial part of their appeal is that they have not engaged in the rightward triangulation that Sinn Féin have taken. It has meant that progressive young people and women in particular are looking towards them.

Despite the fact that their fundamental politics are very similar to Labour and they sometimes now appear to the right of Labour (they supported Micheál Martin’s visit to the White House on St. Patrick’s Day, while Labour opposed it, and voted for the Critical Infrastructure Bill while Labour voted against), their electoral and membership base is qualitatively to the left of Labour. Most significantly, the Social Democrats have not yet been part of a right-wing coalition government, making them more attractive to many voters than Labour or the Greens.

The question for the Social Democrats is whether they will just repeat the mistakes of Labour? The last party conference featured announcements seemingly designed to indicate their willingness to manage Irish capitalism safely. Party leader Holly Cairns explicitly indicated their openness to ‘talk to’ and coalesce with Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael. This attitude also limits their capacity to break into more hard-pressed working class areas. 

5. Campaigns matter

The fact that PBP candidate Eoghan Ó Ceannabháin was able to increase his total vote in Dublin Central despite a reduced turnout, and the fact that our total vote share increased by 50% in challenging circumstances, is striking. In a contest where the winner would be either SF or the SocDems (the two parties that PBP voters overwhelmingly transfer to), it was always going to be difficult to substantially increase our vote.

That we did so is a testament to the quality of our candidate, whose socialist politics meant he was comfortable dealing with whatever emerged, and our serious approach to organising. Indeed, the result wasn't just a product of the election campaign, but also the activism by Eoghan and PBP in the weeks, months, and years previously on a variety of issues, including defence of cultural spaces, Council rents and Palestine. 

The national prioritisation of Dublin Central then allowed us to focus on a systematic approach within the campaign itself. We built a strong campaign team of volunteers, an infrastructure to facilitate activities throughout the constituencies, and were able to react quickly to events like our initial exclusion from the RTÉ debates. We were also able to prioritise the building of deeper relationships with our supporters through repeat canvasses. The campaign and result mean PBP is now well positioned to deepen its roots, fight for two Council seats and present a credible challenge at the next general election.

Despite our modest result in Galway West, our members should be proud of the hard work of our candidate, Denman Rooke, and our members and supporters. The Galway West By-election was an important opportunity to build our branch and develop local connections for future campaigns. 

In order to be able to have a mass orientation, PBP members need to build sustainable political branches which inspire people to be active. Those members can then be turned to campaigning to build mass roots for our politics. 

In the context of the other parties of the broad left now making a rhetorical commitment to ‘vote left transfer left’, it is incumbent on PBP to go further and differentiate ourselves within that broad left. This can be done in three key ways. 

Firstly, by seeking opportunities to implement our people-power campaigning approach, which shows the difference in practice. We want to organise people to win improvements in their lives now, while others emphasise voting to deliver change. Secondly, sharpening our advocacy for left government and explicitly criticising those that refuse to rule out coalition with Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael or scapegoat migrants and minorities. Thirdly, in the context of widespread alienation from the current system, increased militarisation and the ever-present threat of ecological breakdown, we need to find ways to popularly present the necessity of a rupture with capitalism and an ecosocialist alternative.